Environmental aspects of drilling operation risks:
a probability prediction based on fuzzy time series
A drilling operation has many inputs, with large-scale and high-risk characteristics, resulting in a number of potential environmental risks.
These risks are primarily associated with (a) contamination due to drilling wastes (mud, produced waters, byproducts, etc.);
(b) emissions from drilling sites and potential runoffs, and (c) direct effects on human health.
It is necessary to study the prediction method of drilling risk probability to avoid ecological damages.
In this paper, we represent a fuzzy time series method based on fuzzy theory and time series analysis with three steps for drilling operation site risk prediction.
First, a number of fuzzy time series are constructed from the original one.
Second, fuzzy logical relationships and fuzzy logical relationship groups are built with these fuzzy sets.
Third, the final prediction is obtained through the defuzzification rules.
The experimental results demonstrate that the fuzzy time series method is more feasible and effective.